Fed Interest Rates

Big analysts around the world were all equally surprised at how central banks are playing their cards on their monetary policies. Before it was all about the rise and fall of their interest rates, now they have to be sensitive not just to other facets of their market (such as bonds or real estate in US), but also to its effect to reciprocal countries especially those emerging ones.

“It is no longer sufficient to publish forecasts of the policy rate as an indication of the central bank’s overall policy stance.”  – Paul Donovan, UBS Global Economist

So will the Fed raise interest rates now? This week’s US news are a lil bit rocky, though it ended with a good employment data. However, we got a very strong Euro now.

Is Fed together with the ECB willing to put other markets at risk by making themselves more conducive to investments? We’ve seen a not yet stable yuan, trying to get back to its feet,but we can also see the need for US to finally raise rates.

One local indication of its effect is having a bloody PSEi while anticipating for the raise.

It is said that though FED is going to raise rates it wont be as significant as expected, but as of now, nobody can tell what is still significant or not. People are reacting irrationally to the least viable news that they perceive helpful to their portfolio.

What matters is how you can take advantage of it, as everyone does- not later, not in the future, but now.

Market Outlook Nov. 23- 27, 2015

EURAUD

Weekly

I might be having short term bullish signal on lower time frame when it opens next week. However, this week’s outlook is to short it till 1.44. Prices are past 61.8% in bullish fibo level, with bearish MACD and RSI at 42 level.

Daily
Prices fell past 200SMA and is still below clouds, with bearish MACD and RSI level at 21.

AUDCHF

Weekly

I’m relatively bullish with AUD. Though audchf prices are way below clouds and 200SMA, its Bullish MACD and RSI level at 58 indicates possible bullish run with a target price on its 50% bearish fibo level, at 0.75.

Daily

Prices are way above 200SMA and clouds,with bullish MACD and RSI at 78 level.

GBPNZD

Weekly

I’m bearish with GBP this week. Although prices are still above clouds and 200SMA and RSI at 53 , I’m looking at a possible sell to
2.289.

Daily

Prices are within bearish clouds with RSI level at 48.
Please look for bearish signals on your own system before entry.

 

Disclaimer : No absolute Absolutes. Trade at your own risk.

Weekly Market Outlook Nov. 16-20 ,2015

GBPJPY

I am looking for possible bullish run. Prices in W1
are above clouds and 200SMA, with near-bullish MACD Crossover and
RSI at 51 level. Also currently with an ascending triangle in D1, waiting to break a
strong resistance in 187-188 range. Long term TP at 195.

EURAUD

It finally touched its 50% fibo level in w1, with no established lower highs and lower lows
since its reversal in 1.66. Prices are still above the weekly clouds and 200SMA , but MACD is
strongly bearish and RSI is at 48 level.

Lower highs and Lower lows in D1 indicate its continuous bearish run , prices are now below clouds but still above 200SMA.
I’m looking for a possible sell, with a tp close to the 200SMA and 61.8% Fibo level, around 148-149 level.

AUDGBP

It is still relatively strong bearish in w1,with prices still below clouds and 200SMA, and RSI at 42level.
However, Im looking for short term trading set-up between 0.48 – 0.46. Target Prices for bullish break above 0.48 are 0.486
and 0.50 . While a break below 0.46 could possibly reach its past lowest low at 0.445.

 

Disclaimer: No absolute Absolutes. Trade at your own Risk

AbangerNalysis Weekly Trading Set-up

AUDCAD

I’m looking for possible buying position on lower time frame with
tp @ 0.95. but a break in 0.93 can lead to the next support at 0.924
then 0.916. price already touched 38.2% in W1, With bearish MACD and RSI at 45 level.

AUDCHF

Prices are below 200sma and clouds. Prices are heading to 23.6% fibo level at 0.722
AUDCHF has currently has higher highs and higher lows in D1. Macd is currently bullish
and RSI is approaching 50 level. looking for possible buying opportunities.

AUDGBP

currently indecisive, audgbp is ranging from 0.476 to 0.460. MACD is bullish ,RSI is at 42 level.
it could go up at its first resistance 0.476 then to its 23.6% fibo level at 0.487, or break its support and go lower
up to 0.447. See lower tf and correlate entry accordingly.

AUDJPY

I’m having a higher high in W1, with bullish MACD but RSI is still at 44 level and prices stil below 200SMA. In D1, prices were still ranging between 87.6 and 85.8 with bullish MACD and RSI at 51 level.a break in the range and possible fundamental catalyst would bring the prices past
89.2 if bullish and 84.1 if on bearish.

AUDNZD

with its current touch at 50% fibo level and drastic fall till the price held at 1.066. MACD is bearish and RSI is at 47 level ,W1. Prices also held in 200SMA in both H4 and D1
if it shows bearish momentum in the next few days my first support will be around 1.66, while if bullish – my first resistance will be at 1.09 then 1.105.

Disclaimer: No absolute absolutes. Trade at your own risk.

Weekly Market Outlook Nov. 2-6 2015

Disclaimer :  NO absolute absolutes. TRADE at your own risk.

 

EURUSD

with price ranging between 1.146 – 1.084
im looking for possible breakout on this and sell e/u till its first major support at
1.049. Prices are still below 200 sma, from h4 to w1, which is a strong bearish indication.
It also rebounded from 38.2% fibonacci level. RSI is currently at 43 level.

EURJPY

wtih level of short-term bullish bias, EJ is still way undecided if it goes bearish. However,
a touch in 61.8% and a lower low, with MACD bearish Crossover and RSI level of 41, would be indicative of a possible long term bearish position. However, EJ is already below the cloud but above still above the 200 SMA. I’m looking for a conservative sell with TP at 127.32.

EURCAD

with ongoing bearish positions in lower timeframe, EC has yet to establish its new lower high and lower lows in W1. It went through a strong resistance in 1.548 hence, pushing the price down up to it current level at 1.443 .It touched its 1st weekly support at 1.438, next support at 1.37, and 3rd at 1.32. Prices are still above the clouds and the 200SMA, however. EC currently has MACD bearish crossover and RSI level at 47. Looking for conservative sell with TP at 1.38.

EURAUD

Got both bearish and bullish take on this since the prices hasnt yet produced a strong lower lows and lower high from its reversal in 1.63. prices are still above the clouds and SMA. Bullish Fibo suggest that its still about
to touch 50% and 61.8% of its run with level of 1.5 to 1.47 before it would continously fall. however a negative employment came up, with all the bearish short-term positions , so im selling conservatively with tp at 1.516, its previous lower low.
Positive bearish MACD crossover, RSI at 49.

AbangerNalysis 10-9-15

AbangerNalysis
Buy NzdJpy

TP : 81.16
SP : CySP

Disclaimer : No absolute
absolutes. Trade at your
own risk

AbangerNalysis
Buy AudUSd

TP : .7391
SP : CySP

Disclaimer : No absolute
absolutes. Trade at your
own risk

AbangerNalysis
Buy NzdCad

TP : .8706
SP : CySP

AbangerNalysis
Buy GbpUsd

TP : 1.5395
SP : CySp

Disclaimer : No absolute
absolutes. Trade at your
own risk

 

******************************************ciao****************************************

AbangerNalysis CadChf 9.30.15

CADCHF

Mostly cautious when trading CAD pairs because of its affinity to oil- related news, and  prices. However, technically been looking for possible bearish position in CAD after it fills the support zone in m15, h4 (0.7229 – 0.7206).

Sentiment: Bearish . H4. D1, W1.

TP 1 : 0.7128

TP 2 : 0.7038

SL : CySL

Disclaimer : Target Prices may vary and is subject to different fundamental news- release effect. No absolute absolutes. Check your own top down analysis. Trade at your own risk.

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cadchff